Jeremy Warner's Outlook: Stock markets will eventually turn but we haven't seen the capitulation yet

London's FTSE 100 index briefly dipped into official bear market territory yesterday – defined as 20 per cent or more off the peak – and though it later came out of it again, few would bet on stocks staying out of trouble for long. Hank Paulson's prediction that the US economy will be pulling out of the downturn by year end was tempered by the observation that economic conditions would remain difficult for some years to come. In Britain, it is still possible we'll avoid outright recession but nobody is forecasting a swift bounce back. The US Treasury Secretary is only preaching what has become conventional wisdom in predicting a long, hard slog. Meanwhile, the doomsters, or perma-bears, no longer seem as far out on a limb as they used to. Some of their predictions are coming true, and their warnings of a prolonged economic... [read full story]